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Nhan đề: Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: a study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam.
Tác giả: Xuan, Nguyen Huong
Cordia, Chu
Lien, Nguyen Thi Huong
Cuong, Do Manh
Dung, Phung Tri
Thanh, Nguyen Ha
Từ khoá: Rain
Time series analysis
Climate change
Disease mouth
Disease foot
Disease hand
Mekong Delta region
Năm xuất bản: 1-Mar-2017
Tùng thư/Số báo cáo: Science of The Total Environment;Volumes 581–582, Page 766-772
Tóm tắt: This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1 °C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5 days (95% CI 0.3–10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3 days and 6 days (95% CI 0.7–2.7 and 95% CI 0.8–2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6 days (95% CI 0.2–0.9 and 95% CI 0.1–0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.
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ISSN: 0048-9697
Appears in Collections:Health care

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