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Nhan đề: The Impacts of TPP and AEC on the Vietnamese Economy: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Livestock Sector
Tác giả: Thanh, Nguyen Duc
Hang, Nguyen Thi Thu
Itakura, Ken
Nga, Nguyen Thi Linh
Tung, Nguyen Thanh
Từ khoá: TPP
Vietnamese economy
Năm xuất bản: 3-Aug-2015
Nhà xuất bản: Viet Nam institute for economic and policy research
Tùng thư/Số báo cáo: ;pp. i - xiv, 1 - 117
Tóm tắt: This study attempts to make a quantitative evaluation of the potential economic impacts of liberalizing trade in goods and services under the TPP and AEC on Viet Nam. Based on the recently published Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base version 9 by Narayanan, Aguiar and McDougall (2015) and the GTAP model (Hertel 1997; McDougall, 2003), we conduct a set of numerical experiments to simulate the economic effects arising from the establishing TPP and AEC on both the macroeconomy and the livestock sector. Our main findings are of two folds. On the macroeconomic side, the analysis shows the clear gains in GDP after TPP and AEC, with Viet Nam being the biggest gainer in terms of GDP percentage under TPP. On the livestock sector side, we observe the narrowing down of the whole sector after TPP and, to a smaller degree, AEC. The structure of the report is as followed. Section 2 provides a general overview of TPP and AEC, recent negotiations and trends in trade and investment between Viet Nam and member countries. The next section discusses in details the impacts of TPP and AEC on the Viet Nam’s economy and its economic sectors in relation to the country’s main trading partners. Section 4 looks at the livestock sector in more details. It describes the trends and recent performance of Viet Nam’s livestock sector, focusing on production, consumption, market structure and value chains in the sub-sectors as the combined results of a thorough desk study and various field trips across Viet Nam. Further analysis of the impacts of TPP and AEC on Vietnamese livestock sector and sub-sectors is then provided using simulation results obtained from the GSIM model. The last section summarizes the research findings and provides policy discussions.
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