Farming in changing production conditions: agricultural technology, climate change and adaptation in vietnam

Abstract

In an era when enormous challenges to food security are imposed on humanity through phenomena such as global climate change, it is important to understand how farming households adapt and respond to a changing production environment. This thesis consists of three empirical studies with a special focus on rural farming households in Vietnam. The first study investigates the pattern and determinants of the use of four agricultural practices – new rice seed varieties, chemical fertilisers, pesticides and mechanisation – in small-scale rice farming. Using a long panel dataset, the study applied a two-stage estimation strategy to determine how and to what extent the changes in agricultural technology have been affected by various factors. The second study examines the changes in climatological variables since 1975 using a comprehensive dataset for a relatively long time period (1975 to 2014) and a high density of climatic records. It first combines statistical methods with geostatistical techniques to graphically represent the distribution of climate patterns, identifying variations and trends and linking to rice production throughout the country. The third study investigates whether or not farmers have altered their farming strategies over time in response to pronounced changes in the climate. Since farmers’ decisions to use certain farming techniques are inherently dynamic, I estimated a dynamic random-effects probit model, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. Vietnamese farmers have been operating their farms under a continuously transforming policy environment. However, new challenges are emerging and their impacts on agricultural production have been increasingly pronounced. The findings and policy implications drawn from these studies will be useful in enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity in fast changing production conditions