The potential for mitigation of CO2 emissions in Vietnam's power sector

Abstract

This manuscript examines CO2 emissions from Vietnam's power sector using an expanded Integrated Resource Planning model. The potential effects of the following alternative policy options are examined: energy efficiency, favorably imported generation fuels, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and an internalized positive carbon value. The baseline in terms of cumulative CO2 emissions over 2010-2030 is 3.6 Gt. Lighting energy efficiency improvements offers 14% of no-regret abatement of CO2 emissions. Developing nuclear and renewable energy could help meet the challenges of the increases in electricity demand, the dependence on imported fuels for electricity generation in the context of carbon constraints applied in a developing country. When CO2 costs increase from 1 /tto30/t, building 10 GW of nuclear generation capacity implies an increase in abatement levels from 24% to 46%. Using renewable energy abates CO2 levels by between 14% and 46%. At 2 /tCO2,themodelpredictsanabatementof0.77Gtfromusingwindpoweratprimelocationsaswellasenergyfromsmallhydro,woodresidueandwoodplantations,suggestingCleanDevelopmentMechanismopportunities.At10/tCO2, the model predicts an abatement of 1.4 Gt when efficient gas plants are substituted for coal generation and when the potential for wind energy is economically developed further than in the former model.