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Title: Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Authors: Toan, Do Thi Thanh
Hu, Wenbiao
Thai, Pham Quang
Hoat, Luu Ngoc
Wright, Pamela
Martens, Pim
Keywords: Dengue fever
Dynamic dispersion
Việt Nam
Series/Report no.: The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences;Volume XL-8, 2014
Abstract: -- Introduction: Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. -- Methods: Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatialscan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space–time clusters and dispersion of DF. -- Results: The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02–1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall andtemperatures are highest. -- Conclusions: There is evidence for the existenceof statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation forfurther investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, andprovides data to inform program planning for DF control.
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